The Land Before Time: Cavs Pre-Game Thoughts
July 18, 2025 vs OAKLAND
Did you survive the worst sports week of the year? How did you spend your evenings earlier this week with absolutely no sports to watch? Are you all in on the Love Island craze??
Worry not, because baseball is back tonight! And in spite of what you thought about the first half of this Guardians season, this team is right in the thick of the playoff hunt. After a dismal 10-game losing streak to start July, the feisty Guardians swept the Astros and won 3 of 4 against the White Sox to pull themselves back into the race heading into All-Star week. A division title might be a stretch with a 12 game gap with the Tigers and 67 left to play, but the Wild Card race is very open. Heading into today, the Guardians are 4.5 games out of the playoffs.
I’d like to use this second-half preview to discuss moves the Guardians might make before the trade deadline, but I’m not going to even pretend like that is likely. We may see some prospects (Chase DeLauter!!!) get their first big league shot, but any significant trade will be a shocker. So, we are instead going to briefly discuss why there should be optimism in Cleveland about the remaining 67 games left in the 2025 season.
Current chances for the Guardians to make the playoffs vary based on the source. Baseball Reference has them at a 6.5% chance of making the postseason, but those chances have increased 4% in the last 7 days. The picture gets rosier elsewhere. FanGraphs has them at a 10% chance of making the playoffs, while PlayoffStatus has them at 24%. On FanDuel, you can get the Guardians to make the playoffs at +520 odds, and DraftKings has them at +425 odds (I’m smashing those lines).
The picture gets even better when you look at the remaining schedule. The Guardians have the easiest remaining schedule, and their opponents have a combined win percentage of .476. They also have the most games remaining of any contending team. The only current division leader left on the Guardians schedule are the Tigers, who Cleveland plays 6 more times, all in September (the Guardians have already won 3 of 4 games in Detroit, and the other series against the Tigers came in the middle of the 10 game losing streak). The other toughest series left is against the Mets, and, most crucially, the Guardians have a total of 13 games left against the current top 4 teams in the AL Wild Card standings (BOS, SEA, TB). Until the Guardians play the Mets in early August, these are the teams they will face, in order: Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins. None of those teams are currently above .500…
This Guardians team is imperfect. We are all too familiar with the holes and lack of depth. However, they are also nothing if not resilient. Every year, they seemingly outperform their talent (and payroll) and make this city proud. Jose Ramirez continues to be one of the best players in all of baseball. Two days ago, Shane Bieber made his first rehab start, striking out five in two scoreless innings. If Lane Thomas can get healthy for the second half he can be an impact bat. Chase DeLauter may bring another one.
The first half of 2025 was frustrating, even dismal at points. It seemed like the magic of last year had worn off. But, as Lee Corso might say, “not so fast, my friend!” All time, the Guardians have a .521 winning percentage in September and a .511 winning percentage in August. There is a lot of baseball left, and I can’t wait to see what magic the Guardians may conjure up.
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