The playoffs keep on rolling. The PGA Tour moves to Baltimore this week (eww Ravens) for the BMW Championship, the penultimate event of the season. With just 50 players still alive and 30 advancing to Atlanta next week, there’s no time to waste, especially with another 2000 points available for the winner.
Caves Valley Golf Club is located about 20 minutes north of Pimlico, host of the Preakness Stakes, on the outskirts of Baltimore. It’s just the second time the PGA Tour has come here, after this very same event in 2021.
The Fazio design packs plenty of elevation changes, dramatic greens, and a whole lot of bunkers into its 7,601-yard par-70 layout. Tree-lined fairways and water lurking make the course just a little bit more dangerous, and it should favor the longer hitters this week, in the style of Winged Foot.
In 2021, Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau went into a playoff here at -27. That’s a silly number. It won’t be that low this time. In the four years since, the course has undergone extensive renovations and has changed from a par-72 to the current par-70, making that -27 the equivalent of -19. I’d look for a winning score around -17 this time around.
Once again, 2000 FedEx Cup points are on the line, and there are some big names in serious danger.
Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Harry Hall, and Rickie Fowler are all outside the top 30, and there’s almost no room for error this week.
On the Ryder Cup front, J.J. Spaun and Xander Schauffele have joined Scottie as confirmed members of Team USA, and Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood will be joining Rory on Team Europe.
Russell Henley, Bryson DeChambeau, Harris English, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa are all going to be on Team USA. That’s a given. Four spots are up for grabs, and Ben Griffin and Cam Young have the inside track to two of them thanks to a combination of nuclear form (Griffin) and solid course fit plus form (Young). Patrick Cantlay, barring absolute insanity, will be another captain’s pick, and one spot remains. Personally, I want Sam Burns in that spot, because he’s got a good history in match play, is a great putter, and captain Keegan Bradley can’t hit a putt right now. Fight me, BTow.
Europe’s squad is even more settled. Behind their three already qualified guys, they’ll bring Bobby Mac, Tyrrell Hatton, Sepp Straka (not here this week due to a family matter, but he’s already banked enough points to advance), Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jon Rahm. One spot’s up for grabs, and I like Harry Hall for it. He’s the best putter on Tour this year, and the form is solid. If he stays hot, it’s his to lose.
Here are some guys to keep an eye on this week, from all over the playoff picture.
I mean, yeah. It’s Scottie. I don’t need to say anything else.
Vibes: 10/10
Burns rebounded nicely from a couple of rough putting weeks in Memphis, and it looks like he’s got the mojo back. With just two weeks until Team USA is finalized, he could stand to make a couple more good impressions.
Vibes: Audition/10
Rickie needs a huge week to make it to East Lake. Like a win huge. Never say never.
Vibes: Anything is Possible/10
After another brutal finish where he watched Justin Rose close with four birdies while he lost shots, Tommy’s still searching for his first win on Tour, and it’s been painful. I still believe, though.
Vibes: Ready to be Hurt Again/10
Golfing Mew for president. I’ve been spreading Ben Griffin propaganda for months, as his unbelievable season continues and he could just about guarantee a Ryder Cup spot with another strong week.
Vibes: 9/10
Young hits it a mile, we mentioned his good form earlier, and he’s playing for a chance to go to his first Ryder Cup. Oh, and he’s ninth on Tour in SG: PUTT. That’s a good combo to have at Caves Valley.
With two events left, the pressure just got jacked up even higher. Winning a FedEx Cup comes with life-changing money, and you’ll have to be at your very best to even have a shot at it next week. 20 guys will see their playoff run end this week, and there will be drama throughout the tournament, even more than in an AFC North game. Enjoy the action, and I’ll see you for the season finale next week: the TOUR Championship at East Lake.
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